http://billjames.org/Bill%20James%20Web%20Pages/06%20General.htm

Analyzing District 6 election results

The 'gay' issue effect

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During the recent November 2006 General election for the first time ever Parks Helms the normal 'top vote getter' among Democrats in District 6 trailed Democrat Jennifer Roberts.

While Republicans are approximately 47% of the registered voters, they received 66% of the vote in 2006 (75% of the vote in 2004's Presidential election year).  Democrats are approximately 27% of the registered voters but received no more than 33% of the vote on 2006 (down from 36% in 2004). This indicates that most of the unaffiliated voters were solidly in the GOP camp.

While the Democrats and Republicans received fewer votes due to lower turnout, Helms' percentage of the DEMOCRAT vote dropped from 36% down to 30% due to the GOP ad campaign. Jennifer Roberts was slightly less than 3% ahead of Parks Helms, a first time event among District 6 Democrats.

While the Democrats will try and put a faux happy face on these results, the reality is that Jennifer Roberts did better than Helms because she was not included in the GOP ads that went after Parks over Gay Marriage and other related issues.

In essence, Democrat voters in District 6 seemed to reject the devil they knew (Parks Helms) because of his views mostly on homosexual issues in favor of the devil they didn't know (Roberts). Among Democrats, Rembert was so far out of the money as not really even be a player. 

Among Republicans in the At-large race,  McGarry won 16 precincts, Puckett won 9 precincts, and Ramirez won 8 precincts. The Difference between Bill James on election day at 21,730 and the top vote-getting at-large GOP (McGarry) at 20,644 was 1,086 votes. The difference between McGarry and the other at-large GOP was 358 votes indicating County-wide trends and party voting.

The "gap" between the Democrats (Roberts) and James was significant at over 10,000 votes. Among Democrats however, they rejected Parks over another at-large Democrat for the first time in his electoral history.

What is interesting about all of this is that Jennifer Roberts' views are believed to be the same as Parks Helms. Considering that she voted for the same tax increases as well as homosexual issues why would DEMOCRAT voters reject Parks Helms over her? The simple answer is that they knew what Parks Helms believed because they saw it in GOP ad's on TV and the internet.

This should provide an interesting issue for Roberts especially if she convinces her fellow Democrats to make her Chairman (evidently over Helms' mild objections to this point in the media). If she pushes the agenda she wants, she too will lose votes in 08 as her positions become known.

Now of the three primary issues mentioned in the series of TV/Internet ad's (tax increases, gay issues and CATS transit mis-management), all of the others had been mentioned previously. In past ad campaigns not a forum would go by where the GOP would blast Parks over Taxes or "spending" (light-rail, Schools or other issues).

THIS election however showed for the first time the introduction of a new element in the GOP ad campaign, namely social issues - gay marriage and 'domestic partner benefits'. Comparing the current GOP ad campaign to prior ones, this is the primary difference and it is the one that cost Helms a significant number of votes.

So..........if the Democrats elect Roberts to be chair will she push for the same things that robbed Helms of 5 to 7 thousand votes?

Don't know, but it will be an interesting two years since all of the Democrats except two (Woodard and Mitchell) essentially promised the local gay PAC that they would push for gay issues over the coming two years.

Of Course, Helms promised (Observer quote) that he would not pursue such issues if elected (after the GOP ads backed him into a corner) but Roberts did not, trying to stay under the radar. If elected Chair will she push what 3 of the 5 Democrats (Helms, Mitchell and Woodard) have said should not be brought up?

Hmmm.............do  what those that gave your campaign big bucks want or do what the public wants (and what elected Democrats have said they would prefer). Real leadership will ride of whether she calls MeckPAC and tells them the 'bad news'.

If not, there is always another ad campaign with a different star.